Bullish: The State Of Golf
Golf's strength remains impressive.
Once a month, I write a newsletter breaking down the business in golf. Welcome to the new Perfect Putt members who have joined us since our last newsletter. Join 10,900+ intelligent and curious golfers by subscribing below.
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Hey Golfers —
Golf has had an absolute run since 2019.
One of the most common questions around the industry is, “Can golf sustain its growth?” Golf has done that and more in the last five years, and still finds itself in a tremendous position going forward.
Here is why I believe that.
Let’s look at two of the most important health metrics in golf.
Participation rate
Golf rounds played
National Golf Foundation tracks the participation rate. The overall participation rate was 47.2 million in 2024 versus 33.5 million in 2018 — a 41% increase in that timeframe.
You could argue that a large driver of that growth is due to off-course growth (places like Topgolf, Puttshack, etc.). 19.1 million people engaged in off-course golf in 2024 versus 9.3 million in 2018 — a 105% increase.
Off-course golf managed to grow by 600,000 new golfers in 2024 — the lowest level of growth since 2021. But the category still managed to grow even as its industry leader, Topgolf, saw its same venue sales decline by 9% for the year.
What impresses me is the continued growth in on-course golf.
This number was as flat as the Kansas plains (I love Kansas) for years until 2019. We actually saw a decrease in 2016.
2015 — 24.1 million
2016 — 23.8 million
2017 — 23.8 million
2018 — 24.2 million
2019 — 24.3 million
2020 — 24.8 million
2021 — 25.1 million
2022 — 25.6 million
2023 — 26.6 million
2024 — 28.1 million
From 2015 to 2019, we added 200,000 on-course golfers. Not even 1% growth.
And 2024 saw its largest increase of new on-course golfers since the pandemic surge in 2020. Golf has sustained its run, and some. From 2019 to 2024, we added 3.8 million on-course golfers. Over 15% growth in that time frame.
Here’s the chart.
The house is being built on a sustainable foundation from a growth standpoint. I’ve written about this in the past — two of the key growth demographics are junior and female golfers.
Between 2019 and 2023, off-course junior golf participation skyrocketed by 82%, jumping from 2.2 million to 4 million.
7.9 million people who participated in on-course golf in 2024 were females. That is 28% of the total on-course number, up from 19% in 2000.
Total golf rounds increased by 2.2% in 2024. And when you consider that over half a billion rounds were the baseline, that is a promising increase.
It was a record year of 532 million rounds of golf played in 2024. And golf has seen records broken three out of the last four years in rounds played.
Measuring golf rounds is the gold metric and significantly impacts the industry. If more people play golf, they will buy more golf balls and equipment. It impacts the golf courses from a food and beverage perspective and the turf side.
It flows downhill from an economic standpoint.
With growth comes challenges, specifically on the on-course side.
Green fee prices have increased, and it is more difficult to get tee times. Golf course supply is a real issue right now.
And it isn’t easy to relieve that supply by using traditional means of building more golf courses. But I do believe technology and indoor golf can play a role.
From a technology standpoint, Noteefy believes that cancelled tee times are a $1 billion issue. Not a great scenario from the golf course side or the golfer side. But Noteefy helps solve part of this issue in capturing revenue for golf courses and getting golfers a tee time that would’ve been more challenging to get in the past.
More golfers are priced out of joining a private golf course. So they are considering the alternative option of joining a private indoor golf facility. From a scale standpoint, indoor golf is much quicker to build than a golf course.
Golf has been on an incredible run. And I firmly believe it will continue to grow, because the foundation is solid. Of course, golf will follow some economic cycles, and we may see a dip at some point. But golf is in a much stronger position than it was in the late 2000s.
Have a great Tuesday. We will talk to you next month!
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We need to keep the residential developers out of the Golf Development business. This was the single reason 2007 was so devastating to our business. Once central amenity / green space golf courses did not have lot sales to prop-up acceptable course losses, the entire scheme collapsed.
You said, "Golf has been on an incredible run. And I firmly believe it will continue to grow, because the foundation is solid."
Just wait until the coming recession, and then watch the numbers plummet.